Common Country Assessment - Swaziland, 1997

Contents | Introduction | Poverty Reduction and Sustainable Livelihoods | Advancement/Empowerment of Women | Child Rights/Child Development/Child Protection | Education | Population | Environment | Health | STD/HIV/AIDS | Food Security/Nutrition | Governance and Participation | Institution Building | Summary and Conclusion

Chapter Six - Population

The issue of population has already been referred to in the introductory chapter. The narrative in this chapter will address itself more specifically to the indicators below.

The provisional results of the 1997 Population and Housing census are as follows:

Although these figures are only provisional at this stage and therefore cannot be considered as definitive, they indicate that the population growth has been significantly lower than had been previously estimated. For example, the 1997 figure is almost identical to the 1986 census’s projection to 1996 (965,765) assuming a fast fertility decline of 0.2 TFR, declining mortality and no migration - the lowest projection of that census. The repatriation of Mozambican refugees has been suggested as an influencing factor, but a detailed analysis must await the complete census figures.

The growth of Swaziland’s population can therefore be entabulated as follows:

Sources: CSO 1995 Annual Statistical Bulletin; 1986 Census Vol. 4 pp.1.13 & 2.6; CSO 1997 preliminary results

The total and resident population growth rates 1966-1997 are therefore 2.94 and 2.92 percent respectively, and from 1976-1997 2.99 and 2.96 percent. That the absentee population - which has increased at almost 5.0% p.a. 1986-97 - is predominantly male may be inferred by the male resident population (432,747) being only ninety percent of the female (480,402).

Using the figure of 912,876 - the resident population - results in a current population density of 52.6 persons per square kilometre, which is included with the caution that it is not a particularly useful statistic for comparison purposes due to Swaziland's extremely variegated natural features within its small area.

More relevant comparisons can be made from the other indicators, but for them the most authoritative figures remain those from the 1986 census. Nevertheless, the more recent estimates reinforce a record of successes since independence in Swaziland achieving longer, healthier lives for its population, with life expectancy increasing from 44 years in 1968 to 57 years in 1992 and 60 years for women (57 for men) in 1996. Other indicators and estimates tell a similar success story:

Sources: Various

The final indicator, the percentage of the population in rural areas, was also provided in the 1997 provisional results: 204,846 were in urban areas, and 708,030 in rural - that is, 77.5 percent rural, and 22.5 percent urban. This bears a strong resemblance to the 1986 ratio, but confirms a higher rate of urban growth than rural in the long term - 4.8 percent urban growth from 1966-97, compared to 2.53 percent in rural areas. Provisional figures for Mbabane/Manzini/Manzini peri-urban indicate a 4.7 percent growth p.a. 1986-97 in those most densely populated areas, ranging from 4.0 percent in Mbabane to 5.5 percent in the Manzini/Matsapha peri-urban area.

In interpreting the figures for the rural/urban divide, it should be noted that it is a widespread practice in Swaziland for urban and peri-urban dwellers to return to SNL on weekends. Many in urban and peri-urban areas consider that their real home is on SNL, so with Swaziland's small size the rural-urban divide is not as distinct as may be in larger countries.

The lower population also translates to a lower number per household - averaging 5.3 in the provisional results (912,876 residents, 171,236 households) instead of the previously estimated 6.3. A further point of note is that there are almost 40,000 more households than homesteads - there are 132, 975 homesteads - about one for every 6.87 residents.

Swaziland is currently working on a Population Policy draft document.

1. West, 1996, pp. 133-134; WHO, 1996, pp. ix, 9; MEPD, 1993. Assessment of Economic Performance Since Independence. Food Studies Group, Mbabane.
2. MHUD, 1995, p. 5-7.
3. West, 1996, p.134; MHUD, 1995, p.5-8; CSO documents and estimates as detailed in text.

Population Indicators

Suggestions or comments. This page was last updated on 06 May 2003