Swaziland's First National Communication to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

1.0 THE EXECUTIVE SUMMARY | 2.0 NATIONAL CIRCUMSTANCES | 3.0 GREENHOUSE GAS INVENTORIES | 4.0 VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATION | 4.2 FORESTRY | 4.3 HYDROLOGY AND WATER RESOURCES | 4.4 AGRICULTURE | 5.0 MITIGATION OPTIONS ANALYSIS | 5.2 ENERGY | 5.3 FORESTRY | 6.0 POLICIES AND MEASURES | REFERENCES | ABBREVIATIONS

Chapter 2 National Circumstances

2.1 GEOGRAPHY 

The Kingdom of Swaziland, is situated in South Eastern Africa between the 25th and 28th parallels and longitudes 31° and 32° East. It lies some 48 to 225 kilometres inland of the Indian Ocean littoral and hence physically landlocked, meaning all traffic in and out of the country has to be routed via one of its neighbours, South Africa or Mozambique. The country has a total surface area of 17,360 km2 and as such, the smallest country in the southern hemisphere. It is bounded by the Republic of South Africa in the north, west and south, and by Mozambique on the east (Figure 2.1). 

Although small in size, Swaziland is characterized by a great variation in landscape, geology and climate. It also lies within the Maputoland Centre, an area reported to have the greatest biodiversity in Southern Africa. 

There are four distinct physiographic regions within the country (Highveld, Middleveld, Lowveld and Lubombo) which are clearly distinguished by elevation and relief (Murdoch, 1970).

Figure 2.1 - Swaziland

Major landforms featuring mountains, hills and plains characterize the east to west cross-section of the country, giving rise to valleys, plateau and basins. 

Although the country has historically been divided into the four physiographic zones, it has now been more appropriately reclassified into six, taking into account climate, elevation, landforms, geology, soils and vegetation. Characteristics of these physiographic zones including landforms and altitudes (representing the common ranges, not extremes), are given in Table 2.1. 

The Highveld (33%) of the country’s total land area, is the upper part of an overall escarpment. It consists of a complex of steep slopes between low and high levels, dissected plateau, plateau remnants and associated hills, valleys and basins. 

The Upper Middleveld (14%) consists of strongly eroded plateau remnants and hills at an intermediate level of overall escarpment. It also contains structurally defined basins in relatively protected positions, which are only weakly eroded. 

The Lower Middleveld (14%) is basically the piedmont zone of the escarpment, characterized by generally strongly eroded foot slopes. The overall slopes are predominantly moderate and the zone classifies at the first level as a plain. 

The Lowveld plain consists of sedimentary and volcanic Karro beds versus the igneous and metamorphic rocks of the Highveld and Middleveld. The Lowveld is subdivided into the higher Western Lowveld (20%) on sandstone or clay stone, and the lower Eastern Lowveld (11%) on basalt. 

The sixth zone is the Lubombo Range (8%), a cuesta with a steep escarpment bordering the Eastern Lowveld and a gradual dip slope of about 1:20 descending east. As a major landform the Lebombo qualifies as a plateau.

The Lowveld plain consists of sedimentary and volcanic Karro beds versus the igneous and metaphorphic rocks of the Highveld and Middleveld.

Table 2.1 Physiographic regions of Swaziland

Source: A Remmelzwaal (1993)

2.2 CLIMATE

Swaziland enjoys a climate which is generally subtropical, with hot and wet summers and cold and dry winters. Further variations in climatic conditions occur within the different physiographic regions giving rise to three clearly distinguishable climate types. 

The highveld and upper middleveld are characterised by a Cwb climate. The lower middleveld and Lubombo range have a Cwa climate whilst the western and eastern lowveld have a Bsh climate (Murdoch, 1970). 

Mean annual rainfall ranges from about 1500 millimetres in the Highveld to a little less than 500 millimetres in the southern lowveld. Figure 2.2 gives the distribution of mean annual rainfall within the country.

The Highveld’s temperate climate is characterised by wet summers and dry winters, and annual rainfall averaging 1500 millimetres. Temperatures vary between a maximum of about 33°C in mid-summer and 0°C at night in mid-winter. On the other extreme end is the Lowveld which experiences a sub-tropical climate. This region receives the lowest annual rainfall of about 450 mm. There is also a large diurnal temperature range experienced here with maximum temperatures reaching the upper 30’s not uncommon. Semi-arid pockets of areas are found in this region, which is also liable to desertification. The frequency of heavy downpours is more uniform across Swaziland than is total rainfall. Between 75% and 83% of precipitation (summed mean monthly amounts) comes in summer (October - March).

Figure 2.2: Mean annual rainfall distribution

The country is prone to occurrences of natural disasters, such as tropical cyclones on one end and drought on the other. The latest and longest drought experienced occurred during the period of 1989 -1994. Climate change is therefore likely to have a bearing on the frequency and magnitude of these events and their associated impacts.

Table 2.2: Average annual temperature and rainfall by physiographic region

2.3 POPULATION

Swaziland’s population in 1994 was estimated at 870 000 with an annual growth rate of 3.2%. High rates of fertility (5.6 lifetime births per woman) also prevail accompanied by high, albeit decelerating mortality rates (compared to other countries with similar per capita GDP). 

The population is fairly evenly distributed across the four administrative regions, reflecting the fact that the country is devoid of natural barriers inhibiting human settlements. 

The country’s population, which may be divided into 76% rural and 25% urban is a young one. The country’s age-sex pyramid is broad-based with a 60% of the population under the age of 21 years. 

The de-facto population for the period 1976-1995 is presented in Figure 2.3 and the projections of population growth rates are given in Table 2.6.

The high incidence of HIV/AIDS could have an impact on future population projections and related socio-economic performances. Life expectancy is currently estimated at 52,8 years for men and 59,8 years for women. 

Figure 2.3: Swaziland’s de facto Population (1976-1995)

Source: Central Statistics Office

2.4 THE ECONOMY 

Swaziland has a small, but strongly export-oriented economy. In the 1993/94 fiscal period, the country realized exports that were 70% of the gross domestic product and imports of 80%. Economic activity, which is vibrant in the country, is an important source of Green house gas (GHG) emissions. 

The main economic sectors in Swaziland include agriculture, forestry, mining, manufacturing, construction, electricity and water, transport and communications, and government services. 

Emissions of GHG stem from a variety of human activities. The agriculture and forestry sectors are among the most active active in the Swaziland economy and are responsible for large amounts of GHG emissions as levels of consumer demand increase. 

Similarly, the nature of the economy, as well as the physical circumstances display the country’s particular vulnerability to climate change and its related adverse effects. In considering economic activity and its contribution to climate change, several macroeconomic variables have been examined. These include, amongst others, growth trends of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and demographic information.

Table 2.3: Swaziland’s National Circumstances

2.4.1 Economic Performance

Over the years since 1968 when Swaziland obtained her independence, the country’s economy has experienced remarkable economic growth, social progress, political stability and human development. The historical economic environment of the country up to the 1980s was hence characterized by positive growth and a notable surplus position. 

The upward trend however slowed down around the 1980s impacting on several important features of the nation’s development, including the per capita income growth. The major causes of the declining trend were the decline in foreign investment inflows (particularly since the 1990s), recurring drought conditions (spanning the period 1989-1994), high population growth rates and other contributing factors including the poor overall performance of economies of the subregion. The recent decline in economic growth saw a low of -0.1% in 1991/92 and a slight recovery thereafter reaching about 3% in 1994. 

Official statistics indicate that real gross domestic product at factor cost grew at an average 2.8% per annum during the period 1989/90-1993/94. Table 2.3 presents the important indicators of the country’s national situation for the base year 1994. The total GDP at factor cost and at current prices for that year stood at 3 047 million Emalangeni (US$ 878 million). The corresponding GDP per capita was E 4 308 (US$1 240).

2.4.2 Sectors of the Economy 

An analysis of the share of each sector on the overall country’s GDP shows the category of services assuming the lion’s share at about 35.5% in 1994. This includes, in descending order, government services, wholesale and retail, transport, banking, financial and other related services. 

A summary of the country’s GDP by sector of origin and their relative share is presented on table 2.4. Secondary production is the second largest category making up the GDP with a total contribution of 32.7%. 

The activities under this category are manufacturing, electricity and water and construction. Manufacturing growth is largely attributed to the increase in production of drink processing and sugar based production activities. 

Table 2.4: Gross Domestic Product by Sector of Origin at Current Prices

The share of manufacturing alone is 27.5%. The rest of the other sectors, namely agriculture, mining and forestry account for 10.2%, 1.4% and 0.7% of GDP respectively. This shows a level of diversification of the country’s economy from heavy reliance on any one particular sector. 

Within the agricultural and forest sectors, sugar and wood pulp have been the main contributors to the Swaziland economy. Production of sugar and wood pulp is directly derived from the agricultural and forestry sectors respectively. 

Processing of raw materials in the production of these two involve complex industrial processes, which add to the emissions of GHG. These processes therefore need to be considered when determining adaptation and mitigation strategies for the country.

Swaziland is one of the leading producers of soft drink concentrate and a supplier of the majority of African countries and beyond. This has lead to an increase in the production of miscellaneous edibles. The type of energy used is worth investigation for their contribution to GHG levels. 

With regard to exchange rates, the Lilangeni is recorded to have been steady at 2:1 US$ in the mid 1980s and a relatively small drop to an average of about 3.4:1 US$ in 1994. The Lilangeni is pegged to the South African Rand at par. 

Swaziland also belongs together with South Africa, to a common monetary area agreement. It is also a member of the Southern African Customs Union (SACU) of which South Africa is a dominant partner. 

2.4.3 Country Developmental Strategies 

The country’s development objectives outlining national priority issues have been central in structuring Swaziland’s anticipated intervention in commitments of the Climate Convention and others. To attempt an initial assessment of climate change impacts and identification of mitigation options, baseline projections have been developed using sets of assumptions depicting the expected pattern of economic development. In particular, country objectives as presented in the National Development Strategy (NDS), were considered when making sector projections and overall country projections. 

It is important to note that the country continues to use the three-year rolling National Development Plans (NDPs). These are now designed in the context of the long term plan NDS (twenty five year). The NDS, NDPs and annual budgets jointly, are designed to ensure that aspirations of the Government of Swaziland for the welfare of its people are translated into actionable policies and programmes to ensure optimization of resource allocation. 

Before making the baseline projections, it is important to provide a summary of Government’s objectives regarding Swaziland’s development and the welfare of its citizens. The Government of Swaziland has as part of its main objective endeavoured to address three main areas: good governance, a vibrant economy, and human and social development.

Good governance encompasses such issues as constitutionalism, the role of the State, and tradition and culture. One of the initiatives, which came up as a direct consequence was the setting up of the Constitutional Review Commission (CRC), aimed at soliciting views of the nation on areas that warrant inclusion into the country's constitution. This process, when completed, is expected to help assess various elements of good governance, which include, inter alia, legitimacy, accountability transparency and popular participation. 

Strategies aimed at improving human and social development include ensuring high levels of food security, provision of proper human settlements and shelter, initiatives aimed at human resource development and improvements in health amenities. Provision of safe water and sanitation as well as programmes aimed at containing the population growth rate are paramount for improvement of the nation’s standards of living. 

Before we turn to our model for the development of the baseline scenario it is important to state the country’s vision encapsulated in the NDS document, which reads as follows: "By the year 2022, the Kingdom of Swaziland will be in the top 10% of the medium human development group of countries founded on sustainable economic development.” 

In essence what the country determines is to speed up the pace at which it bids for enhancement of human capabilities.

2.4.4 System of National Accounts: GDP Projections

In developing the baseline for impact assessments and mitigation analysis a model referred to as the Simplified Macroeconomic Analysis of GHG (SMAG) has been used in the quantification of changes in the economic sectors deemed important in relation to GHG limitation. 

Table 2.5 Projection for average growth rates of the GDP by sector 1994-2030

This simplified assessment involves the use of existing statistics in which all projections for GDP (Table 2.5) are based on national accounts data. These projections were computed using simple moving averages. Had there been an advanced method of compiling national statistics capable of providing detailed multi sectoral information then it would have been possible to engage Computable General Equilibrium Models (CGE models) when analysing climate change mitigation.

Table 2.6: Projections of Population Growth Rates (1994-2030)

CGE models consist of a number of complex equations, which places great demand on data and other resources. Projections of population growth rates for the period 1994-2030 were also computed for this assessment (Table 2.6). 

Since Swaziland has relatively good statistics and development plans it has been possible to carry out assessment such as the SMAG, which provides a deeper mitigation analysis than a purely descriptive approach. The analysis contained in this report, therefore, offers a superior decision framework for GHG limitation compared to a purely descriptive approach.

The background information provided on the various economic sectors associated with GHG emissions and an in-depth look into the country’s developmental objectives provided a good base for application of SMAG.

2.5 AGRICULTURE 

Swaziland commands two agriculture production systems. One is on Swazi Nation Land (SNL) where there is communal ownership of land and the other is on Individual Tenure Farms (ITFs) where there is private ownership of land. Production of crops and livestock on SNL is mainly subsistence whilst production on ITFs is commercial and consist of huge farms under irrigation. Agricultural production on SNL has remained low and technology used has remained rudimentary.

Although Swaziland has succeeded in achieving self-sufficiency in agriculture, she has failed to achieve self-reliance and as such remains a net importer of agricultural produce. In spite of the various agriculture promotion programmes the country has failed to exploit its comparative advantage in the production of several types of crops. 

Attempts to encourage maize production have been hampered by unfavourable soil and climate conditions. Even in those cases where agricultural production responded positively to initiatives by the public sector, cooperatives and NGOs, the lack of markets posed a serious obstacle to the advancement of the sector.

In spite of its poor performance, agriculture remains the mainstay of the Swaziland economy. Projections in Table 2.5 indicate that this sector is possibly expected to continue to account for, at least, 13% of GDP over the next 30 years. Should the country succeed in its endeavour to develop and promote agricultural technologies that are cost effective, acceptable to all stakeholders and environmentally friendly, the objective of self-reliance shall not always remain elusive.

Use of advanced technologies in the production of high value crop such as sugar, citrus, cotton and tobacco can be expected to increase yield and commercial value and thus improve the status of the agricultural sector as a foreign exchange earner. 

Climate change mitigation policies have the primary responsibility of addressing themselves to changes aimed at ensuring improved yields on both SNL and ITF. Swaziland is capable of realizing both its goals of self-sufficiency and self-reliance in agricultural production.

2.6 FORESTRY 

Forestry is an important economic activity, on average this sector accounts for 1.3% of the country’s GDP. As a foreign exchange earner wood pulp is second only to sugar. Presently this sector accounts for, approximately, 10% export value. 

Despite the country’s small size, Swaziland has one of the largest man-made forests in the world. These man made forests account for 6% of the total land mass. These vast plantations of pine trees have been well managed and continue to be an important source of input for the pulp industry. Favourable climatic conditions and appropriate irrigation practices give Swaziland a competitive advantage in this resource. 

Indigenous woodlands and wattle plantations account for 25% and 2% respectively, of the total land mass. These two types of forests have not been well managed and have suffered from deforestation as a result of the rapid increase in the country’s population. Large amounts of forest area have had to be cleared in order to put up buildings both for domestic and commercial use. 

These forests also serve as the main sources of wood fuel and raw material for wood products and homestead construction. Deforestation has led to serious land degradation and loss of biodiversity. 

This is a clear indication that Swaziland has a very big challenge to ensure that afforestation campaigns are effective for the goal of sustainable development to be realized. Restoration of indigenous forest shall definitely require sound rural development programmes. 

So far, Rural Development Area Programmes (RDAPs) have mainly addressed themselves to the improvement of agricultural programmes to, almost, a total neglect of the forestry sector save for a few tree planting campaigns undertaken in a selected number of areas in the country.

2.7 INDUSTRY / MANUFACTURING 

The manufacturing sector has always been the country’s main contributor to GDP. Projections for GDP over the 30-year period indicate that this sector is likely to continue as the leading source of national income.

The impetus to growth in this sector is attributable to Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) attracted in the past, mainly by a favourable industrial climate characterized by the abundance of trainable labour at competitive wages, a poorly unionised labour resource and a relatively stable political situation. 

The manufacturing sector consists mainly of agro-based processing industries, which have survived because of good soils and climatic conditions. Sustainability of these industries depends on, among other things, the extent to which climate change mitigation policies are effectively implemented. 

Reduction of GHG emissions is therefore key in the strategies to sustain the agro-based industry.

Successful environmental degradation abatement actions also have a direct positive socio-economic impact. As was alluded to earlier on, the private formal sector is one of the main employers of the labour force, maintaining high levels of productivity in this sector guarantees employment of large segments of the population, particularly, if production is kept relatively labour intensive.

It is important to note that the manufacturing sector in Swaziland has recently been seriously challenged by changes taking place in neighbouring countries, particularly those of a political nature. The new democratic and thus favourable political climate in the Republic of South Africa led to a relocation of large amounts of foreign capital. Political and economic improvements in the Republic of Mozambique are also likely to display similar behaviour. 

The challenge for Swaziland therefore is to find a possible and long lasting solution to foster sound domestic macroeconomic development in the context of regional cooperation and maintenance of healthy competition with her neighbours.

2.8 MAJOR LAND USE ACTIVITIES 

Grazing occupies about 63% of the country’s total land area and most of the grazing is restricted to the SNL. In 1989/90, natural veld comprised 95% of the land available for grazing (Swaziland Government 1994), with the remaining 5% being improved pasture used mainly for dairy production. However considerable portions of the grazing land exist in arable, grazing, settlement mosaics and have been dramatically modified by cultivation, heavy grazing, and human and livestock population increases over the past two to three decades such that they are no longer true rangelands supporting predominantly natural vegetation. 

This is attributed to the fact that cattle are intimately involved in Swazi custom and culture, and are regarded as a store of wealth. They are important as sources of meat, milk, manure, and draught power for ploughing and transport. About 65% of rural homesteads keep cattle, which make a significant contribution to income from farming activities, perhaps between 30% and 50% of annual income (Swaziland Government, 1983). 

There are no restrictions on the number of livestock that an individual can own, and those without livestock have a right to grazing for any they eventually acquire. Cattle are put out to graze during the day, and returned to the kraal at night, when calves are separated from the cows, which are milked in the morning. 

The practice of fallowing in the croplands has been decreasing due to the increase in population leading to higher demands for cropped land. A large part of the SNL is under maize production, which is the staple food of Swaziland. 

Sugarcane is the leading crop in TDL and it is the main source of foreign exchange for the country. The value of export of sugar was 25% of the total national export in 1992 (Swaziland Government, 1994b). 

Commercial forest is the third most common land use in Swaziland. This activity is predominantly based on large plantations operated by the private sector (6%). 

The remaining 20% of land in the country is either residential, held in the form of natural reserves, water reservoirs and their catchments, or is used by a wide variety of land uses in small areas such as quarrying, orchards, market gardening, etc.

2.9 TRANSPORT 

The efficient functioning of the economy is dependent upon a good network of transport and communication infrastructure and the availability of transport services. The Swaziland Government and its either wholly or partially owned parastatal organisations have a direct role to play in the provision and maintenance of an infrastructure network which is adequate to satisfy all effective demand. In addition, government provides a number of transport services and is responsible for regulating services provided by private enterprises in order to ensure fair competition and adherence to basic safety standards. 

Government strives to promote a balanced multi modal split which facilitates the development and growth of all transport modes, the enhancement of telecommunications and to coordinate all activities within the sector. 

Swaziland’s transport services are well developed and cover the spectrum of requirements for the movement of goods and people. Several operations specialising in a diversity of services operate within the country and are professionally run to high standards. However, public transport by bus is an area, which continues to need improvement. 

Air links to regional and international destinations are facilitated through commercial carriers, including the national airline; (charter companies operate to complement these services).

2.9.1 Road Transport 

The road network has subsequently undergone expensive upgrading and today ranks among the best in the continent, while effective rail links also ensure the prompt, efficient movement of import and export commodities. 

New classification of roads adopted in 1970, has accounted for the decrease in length of main roads. 

2.9.2 Air Transport 

There is only one airport in Swaziland, Manzini, situated at Matsapha, 37 kilometres from Mbabane. Until 1971 no air transport statistics were available, so the data were collected retrospectively from the files of the Ministry of Transport and Communications together with those of the Matsapha Airport Authorities. 

2.9.3 Rail Transport

The Swaziland Railway is 220,4 kilometres inside Swaziland and continues a further 74,0 kilometres to connect with the port of Maputo. The line was originally built for the transport of iron ore from Ngwenya to Maputo, but with the growth of the economy, other traffic, consisting mainly of sugar, pulp and citrus, is being supported.

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This page was last updated on 11 October 2004