Swaziland's First National Communication to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change National Report on Climate Change National Report on Climate Change

Chapter 5 Mitigation Options Analysis

5.2 ENERGY

5.2.1 Baseline Development

Under both baseline and mitigation analysis, the following issues were considered:

i. Assessment of present energy demand and GHG emissions related to physical sources and economic sectors, and projections of these according to a baseline linked to long term development plans and goals, as stipulated under national circumstances.

ii. Identification of options for the abatement of GHG emissions, concentrating on major emitting sectors, as elaborated under inventories.

iii. Cost of reduction alternatives.

iv. Implementation issues and institutional arrangements.

The time frame for reporting was set between 1994 and 2030, with reporting years 2000, 2010, and 2030.

5.2.2 Methodology and Assumptions

The energy demand and GHG emissions forecast was determined with the help of the Long Range Energy Alternative Planning (LEAP). LEAP is a bottom up model developed by the Stockholm Environmental Institute based in Boston (SEI-B). The LEAP forecasts energy consumption and GHG emissions by sector and national energy demand by summing up sectoral energy consumption and GHG emissions. In order to assess the current and future energy demand and GHG emissions in the energy sector, the following assumptions were used both in the baseline and mitigation scenarios:

5.2.3 Population and household size

Population and household size growth have influence on the demand for services and energy and thus will impact on future energy demands. Based on data obtained under macro-economic analysis, Swaziland’s population is projected to reach 1.5 million by 2010 at an average growth rate of 2.7% per annum. Between 2010 and 2030, average population growth of 2.3% was assumed. By 1994, the number of households were estimated at 172,416 by 2000, 2010, 2020 and 2030, they are projected to increase to 197,620, 248,078, 311,418 and 390,931, respectively.

5.2.4 Household energy mix and GDP

Under macro-economic analysis, the number of household energy mix has been determined. The GDP projections are shown in Table 5.1, for each sector.

Table 5.1: Projections for average growth rates of GDP by sector (1994-2030)

5.2.5 Energy intensity and demand projections

Energy intensity over technologies and devices is crucial in determining the energy demand and CO₂ projections. Specific energy intensity values have been used under both baseline and mitigation analysis. To take into account the expected technological improvements of the various appliances and technologies, recognition was taken of the Autonomous Energy Efficiency Improvements (AEEI) factor. This factor allows intensity of energy use to decline as a result of the overall global effort to improve energy efficiency in production practices and technology.

Table 5.2: Swaziland’s energy demand projections by fuel type (Million GigaJoules)

The expected trends in AEEIs from the various sectors over the years will largely be influenced by sector and area of application. The AEEIs in this work ranges from 0 to -1 percent.

A projection for energy demand for Swaziland is shown on Table 5.2.

The total energy demand is expected to grow from 32.52 in 1994 to 39.42, 54.51, 75.65, and 105.35 million gigajoules in 2000, 2010, 2020, and 2030, respectively, to support the expected economic and population growths.

Table 5.3: Projections of CO2 by sector in million kilograms

5.2.6 CO2 Emission Projections

A projection of CO2 emissions for Swaziland by sector in million kilograms, between 1994 and 2030.is shown on Table 5.3. The total CO2 emissions in Swaziland are expected to grow from 875.67 in 1994 to 1075.62, 1518.15, 2147.21 and 3042.68 Gigagrams in 2000, 2010, 2020, and 2030, respectively.

5.2.7 Mitigation in the energy sector

Mitigation in the energy sector considered three economic sectors, namely, industry, road transportation, and household, and one supply side, electricity generation.

i Supply Side Application of advanced, more efficient steam and electric power generation through the use of high pressure Condensing Extraction Steam Turbines (CEST), using bagasse as input fuel.

ii End Use In industry, energy efficient boilers, electric motors and matching electric supply to demand are options considered.

In road transportation options are improved maintenance through annual state inspection and gasoline/ethanol blending.

Under households, issues are the use of efficient lights, solar geysers, improved wood stoves, switching from wood and kerosene to LPG and electric stoves, etc. Detailed characteristics and assumptions for the identified mitigation options on both the country’s energy demand and its related CO2 emissions were not explored in the scope of this study due to certain limitations that have to do with availability of activity data and others. Undertaking such an exercise could reveal in quantitative terms the anticipated impacts due to implementation of these options on the country’s energy demand and on the concentrations of the CO2 emissions. This exercise is recommended in future development of the work in this section.

Table 5.4: Possible annual rates of change and causes for the change in different land-use categories

This page was last updated on 11 October 2004