Swaziland's First National Communication to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change National Report on Climate Change National Report on Climate Change

Chapter 5 Mitigation Options Analysis

5.3 FORESTRY

5.3.1 Baseline and mitigation analysis

Mitigation analysis and strategies involved an examination of the baseline scenario and analysis of various mitigation options including changes in policy. The national baseline was developed with the assistance of COMAP (Comprehensive Mitigation Analysis Process). The COMAP was used to analyse the impact of changes in forestry cover, product supply and demand and cost and benefits of mitigation options.

5.3.2 Methodology

COMAP was used both for the baseline and mitigation analysis. The data used in the model was based on information acquired during the greenhouse gas emission survey. Additional data was obtained from relevant stakeholders and secondary sources such as articles from relevant ministries. To establish the areal extent of various land uses under the baseline scenario in the country, the land-use map of Swaziland (Remmelzwaal & Dlamini, 1994) was used. The annual rate of change in each land use category was based on the findings of the greenhouse gas emission inventory. Table 5.4 shows the anticipated rates and causes for the changes in each land- use category under the baseline scenario.

Under the baseline scenario, COMAP provided the following output:

Land patterns under baseline and mitigation analysis
Estimates of the biomass (carbon) stock during the target period (1994-2030) under baseline and mitigation scenarios
Product and supply demand during the target period
Costs and benefits of mitigation options

Under mitigation, three options were considered. These options were:

Natural regeneration
Forest protection
Reforestation

Table 5.5: Projected land use patterns under baseline scenario

In recommending the measures to be taken under each mitigation option, secondary data (especially publications) from the Ministries of Agriculture and Co-operatives, Tourism, Environment and Communication and Natural Resources and Energy were used. Recognising the importance of policy review in mitigation analysis, existing policies and proposed policy changes were also reviewed.

Considering the seriousness of erosion in the country and its role on desertification and climate change, natural regeneration and reforestation programmes were recommended for the rehabilitating of eroded land (wasteland) sites. The recommended reduction of wasteland is 200 ha per year starting in 2001. This suggests a decrease of about 10% per annum of eroded land.

To date, protected land in the country covers about 5 800 ha (about 4% of the total land area). The present area of protected land in the country is 6%, compared to 10% that is recommended by IUCN yet part of the protected land is being converted into agriculture and possible mining.

Land conversions in protected areas is likely to decrease by 0.5% from the year 2000/2001 if not controlled. It is for this reason that forest protection had been considered in the mitigation analysis. To mitigate against this change, the recommended increase in protected land is about 1% (100ha) per year, starting in 2001.

5.3.3 Results

5.3.3.1 Baseline scenario

With the application of COMAP, changes in landuse patterns under baseline scenario were estimated as given in Table 5.5. From the results shown on Table 5.6 it appears that the area under forest, grasslands and rangelands is likely to decrease under the baseline scenario. This decrease is attributed to the land conversions to other land use activities, especially cropping and an increasing number of settlements.

The projected decreases are 17% for forest cover, grazing land and grassland by the year 2030. Wastelands are projected to increase by 56% by the year 2030 under the baseline scenario. It is projected there will be an increase in protected land (National Parks) with increasing awareness by rural communities of the importance of environmental protection under the baseline scenario.

5.3.3.2 Mitigation scenario

The intention of mitigation is to increase the area under forest and to reduce the degraded area (wasteland). Some of the mitigation measures are already in the plans of the Forestry Section in the Ministry of Agriculture and Co-operatives and the Environment Authority through the Swaziland Environmental Action Programme.

These departments overall mandate is to ensure that forestry resources are managed and conserved optimally in order to prevent degradation from exploitation (Swaziland Government, 1994). This entails maintaining a forest resource inventory and monitoring the rate of deforestation. To achieve this mandate the government intends to undertake the following activities:

i Draft a forest policy and land use plan for forestry development.

ii Identify project areas based on forest inventory.

iii Planting of buffer zones using fast growing tree species.

iv Introduction of agro-forestry activities.

v Implement sustainable management plans for indigenous forests for production of timber, medicine and other forest products.

vi Establishment of additional woodlots.

The private sector is also engaged in encouraging the communities in SNL in the production of forest for income generation. The interventions of the public sector and the private sector will contribute to an increase in the area under forest cover. The recommended annual increases under the mitigation scenario are 5% for dense forest, 2% for woodlands and forest with less than 10% crown cover. With the increase in forest cover, it is projected that area under rangelands and grasslands will be reduced by 1% and 2% respectively.

Table 5.6: Area under different land uses (000 ha) under mitigation scenario

Table 5.7: Biomass density for different land uses (tb/ha) under baseline and mitigation scenarios

Considering that the overall aim of mitigation is to reduce the area of wasteland and increase the area of protected land, an annual reduction of 10% is recommended for wastelands from the year 2000. Protected land on the other hand should be increased by 5% annually. The projected changes in the area under the various land uses under the mitigation scenario are shown on Table 5.6.

Using the projected changes in the area under the different land-use activities, the biomass density (Table 5.7) and pool (Table 5.8) was generated for the baseline and mitigation scenarios. The results indicate that under the baseline scenario, the biomass pool will be reduced by 6% by the year 2030 (Figure 5.1). However, adoption of the suggested interventions (natural regeneration, forest protection and reforestation) under the mitigation scenario would increase the biomass pool by 19% by the year 2030.

Figure 5.1: Biomass pool under baseline scenario and mitigation scenario

5.3.3.3 Product extraction rates, supply and demand

Under the present situation, most products are extracted at a rate that exceeds the sustainable rates. This is particularly true with respect to the extraction of fuel-wood from woodlands. On the other hand, the extraction of electricity from forest resources, perennial crops and dams is below the sustainable rates. Since the extraction rates are directly proportional to the human population, an increase in population will result in increased extraction rates. With the increasing demand, the supply of the products may be inadequate to meet the national needs unless appropriate mitigation measures are taken.

Table 5.8: Biomass pool (000 tonnes)

5.3.3.4 Costs of mitigation options

There are underlying costs under the baseline scenario. These underlying costs include the cost of rehabilitating degraded land, cost of supplying alternative water sources with a reduction in return flows, maintaining personnel and equipment in forest protection. These costs will increase over the years and associated with the increasing costs will be a reduction in the benefits derived from the forest resources. Costs will also be incurred during and after the implementation of each of the selected mitigation options. The costs will include costs of labour, materials and monitoring the mitigation projects.

Table 5.9: Baseline and Mitigation costs and benefits of natural regeneration

Table 5.10: Baseline and Mitigation costs and benefits of forest protection

Table 5.11: Baseline and Mitigation costs and benefits of reforestation

5.3.3.5 Natural regeneration

Under Natural regeneration, the mitigation costs will include the costs of fencing the project areas, personnel to monitor activities and maintenance of the project sites. With inflation, it is projected that the mitigation costs will increase to about $5 618 per ha per year by 2030 (Table 5.9). However, the gross benefits that would be derived from the mitigation measure would amount to about $18 613.00 per ha per year by the year 2030. This means that natural regeneration would yield a net benefit of about $5 204.00 per ha per year by the year 2030.

The projected benefits under natural regeneration include better market prices for livestock as a result of increased availability and nutritional value of grasses (fodder), increased availability of plant resources for extraction and improved in crop production through irrigation as a result of increased return flows in river systems.

5.3.4 Forest protection

In Swaziland, forest protection is generally confined to nature reserves. Only a few areas (for example, the indigenous forest near Mangwaneni in Mbabane) outside nature reserves are protected. As such, the estimated baseline costs of forest protection in this study are based on the activities within nature reserves, especially the remuneration of rangers and maintenance of the reserve. Under the baseline scenario, nature reserves are under pressure from the need for land. Commercial crop production is encroaching into nature reserves (for example, Mhlosinga in Big Bend and part of Hlane Game park), mining is also threatening a part of Malolotja nature reserve which contains an afromontane forest. It is projected that under the baseline scenario, the costs of forest protection will increase with a reduction in the benefits (Table 5.10 and 5.11). Contributing to the reduction in benefits will be the reduction in tourist attractions hence low numbers of tourists visiting the country. The projected decline in benefits is about $7.00 per ha per year. As such, there is need to identify and manage protection worthy areas on communal lands.

The costs of protecting the forests would include the cost of fencing the land, recruiting rangers to monitor activities and manage the protected areas. The gross benefits to be derived from forest protection are projected at about $5 756.00 per ha per year. The benefits would arise from increased tourism and availability of forest resources.

This page was last updated on 11 October 2004