Swaziland's First National Communication to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change National Report on Climate Change National Report on Climate Change

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Chapter 1 The Executive Summary

1.1 BACKGROUND

Swaziland was amongst the 150 nations that signed the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change during the convening of the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development (Earth Summit) in Rio de Janeiro in June 1992. The country subsequently ratified the Convention, becoming Party to it in 1996.

The Convention process was the culmination of international concern on the global increase of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions mainly due to human activities since the industrial revolution. This increase his been directly linked to the threat of global climate change and its associated impacts of increase in temperatures, rise in sea levels, changes in precipitation, extreme weather events and other weather-related effects. As an objective of the Convention therefore, a concerted global effort is amassed to achieve a stabilisation of GHG concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system.

Swaziland, as are most developing countries, is a minor contributor of GHG emissions. The total African share of carbon emissions for example accounted for only 3.2% of the world's total in 1992. Inspite of this fact, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report, Africa has been described as the continent most vulnerable to the likely impacts of climate change. It is in the country’s interest therefore to pursue all intervention options that can contribute to limiting effects of these impacts with similar results of achieving more efficient use of resources and of the systems employed.

In compiling her National Communication, Swaziland seeks to comply with provisions of Articles 4 and 12 of the Convention which enumerate commitments and implementation issues. In the country’s willingness to contribute to the protection of the climate system it's intervention is to follow after the Convention's guiding principles, namely the consideration of Swaziland as a developing country Party with special circumstances, the extent of its capabilities, regards for the common but differentiated responsibilities, and equity.

The National Communication is therefore the country’s preliminary attempt to present an overview, with respect of the base year 1994, of:

Its national social and economic context on the basis of which it will address climate change and its adverse effects and within which various interventions could be made;
A national inventory of anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by sinks of greenhouse gases using the IPCC 1996 Revised Guidelines;
An assessment of the country’s potential vulnerability to climate change and approaches for adapting to such change; and
A general description of steps taken or envisaged by the country to implement the Convention.

1.2 SWAZILAND IN CONTEXT

Swaziland is a small country covering an area of 17 360 in southeastern Africa. Within the limited area of about 193 kilometres north to south, and 145 kilometres east to west, every feature of Africa’s terrain, with the exception of the desert, is to be found. Great variation in landform characterises the country’s cross-section ranging from steep hills and an escarpment in the west to gentle undulating plains and basins in the eastern interior.

The Climate

The country enjoys a climate which is generally subtropical with summer rains (75 percent) falling in the period from October to March. Further variations in climate occur along the cross section of the country following the topological features of the landform. Marked variations in the climate system do occur from year to year giving rise to extreme events that sometimes impact negatively on the country’s natural and socio-economic environments.

Events of prolonged drought spells in some years and of significant flooding by tropical storms in others are features of the region’s climate that have constantly been witnessed. The types of human activities have mainly been dictated by both the prevalent climate and the topology of each respective area.

Population

The population of Swaziland was in 1994 standing at 870,000, with a corresponding annual growth rate of 3.2% which has since been on decline. The demographic distribution is such that 25% of the population lives in urban areas and urban migration occurs at 3 to 5% per annum. Life expectancy is 60 for men and 53 years for women.

It is expected that by the year 2030, approximately 70% of the population will be living in urban or peri-urban areas. The population has a high dependency ratio owing to the fact that 60% is composed of people under the age of 21 years. These are some of the issues the country has to contend with in mobilising support for its development priorities of accelerating economic growth, alleviating poverty, improving social services, and ensuring sustainable use of scarce natural resources.

The Economy

Being the smallest country in the sub-region, Swaziland’s economy is closely tied to that of its larger neighbour, the Republic of South Africa. It is strongly export-oriented with limited domestic markets. Over the period 1968-96, the country’s economy saw growth averaging 6.5% annually. Total GDP at cost factor in 1994 was E3047 million (about $ 900 million) and the corresponding per-capita GDP was E4308 ($1240). The impressive economic growth slowed down as from the 1980’s, a trend attributed to several factors amongst which are declining foreign direct investment inflows, uncertainty over the recent political developments in the sub-region, and most notably effects of the unusually long drought conditions spanning the period 1989-92.

Swaziland, together with South Africa, Botswana, Lesotho and Namibia belong to a regional agreement named the Southern African Customs Union (SACU). This pool has historically supplied for Swaziland, 50% of her public revenues hence the single most important source supporting GDP. The agreement is currently under negotiation and it is yet unclear how its future management will affect share proportions of member states.

Apart from the SACU, agriculture has traditionally been the cornerstone of country’s economy, an attribute that renders the latter particularly vulnerable to impacts of climate change on this sector. The post-independence era has however seen a shift of the economy out of agriculture into industry and services with the associated increases in energy demand and related resource inputs.

Nevertheless, to the extent that a large portion of the manufacturing sector is agro-based (mainly sugar, wood pulp and citrus canning), the base of the economy is therefore still agricultural. A meaningful diversification of economic activity areas is necessarily desirable if the country is to reduce its level of vulnerability due to over reliance on climate-sensitive sectors.

The highly regulated sugar industry is one leading export earner for Swaziland. Three major estates operate mills with a combined output of over 450 000 metric tonnes (MT) and bring in earnings of over E 520 million ($150 million) (1994). Next are citrus fruits whose production averages some 70 000 MT mainly for export markets. In the forest sector, the country’s vast pine growing areas make up one of the largest man-made forests in the world and cover some 66 000 hectares (6% of the country’s total land area). The trees grown here are mainly used to produce unbleached kraft pulp for world markets too. Other export commodities include beverages, coal, cotton, meat and timber.

The Convention provides for special considerations to developing country Parties with specific needs and concerns arising from the adverse effects of climate change and/or the implementation of response measures where certain circumstances apply. Some of these circumstances of concern that apply in the context of Swaziland as listed in Article 4.8 are the following five:

Countries with arid and semi arid areas, forested areas and areas liable to forest decay;
Countries prone to natural disasters;
Countries with areas liable to drought and desertification;
Countries whose economies are highly dependent on income generated from the production, processing and export, and/or on consumption of fossil fuels and associated energy intensive products; and
Land-locked and transit countries.

Swaziland’s small per-capita GHG emissions and it’s disadvantaged position due to the preceding national characteristics will be important factors to consider in the formulation of strategies to fulfil the country’s developmental objectives while satisfying the Convention’s requirements.

1.3 SWAZILAND’S GREENHOUSE GAS INVENTORY

A national inventory of anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by sinks of the main greenhouse gases was compiled for the country for the base year 1994 in accordance with Article 4.1(a). The Revised 1996 IPCC Guidelines were used for this task.

The major source categories considered as provided in the guidelines are energy, industrial processes, agriculture, landuse and forestry, and waste. The inventory results reveal that the country’s total emission of carbon dioxide (CO2) amounted to 874 kilotonnes (Kt). For the other two direct GHGs, methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O), the amounts were even lower at 64 and 1 Kt respectively.

Information on emissions of precursors (gases which have an indirect effect on climate) and some of the fully fluorinated compounds, was also quantified in the inventory.

Emissions of Carbon Dioxide

The 874 Kt energy sector CO2 emission accounted to virtually all the country's CO2 production. This represents a comparatively small per-capita CO2 value of 0.87 tonnes. This emission was predominately derived from fuel combustion from these sectors in the following order: transport (50%), manufacturing (32%), household (15%) and commercial (3%).

Within energy, the transport sub-sector which accounts for half of all emissions is itself dominated by fuel combustion by modes of road transportation. On households, the emissions emanate from the predominant use of coal liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and to some extent kerosene for heating and cooking especially in rural areas where about two thirds of the population reside.

In manufacturing, the emissions are mostly from the traditional reliance on coal for steam generation especially in the sugar, pulp, food and beverages industries. When applying global warming potentials, the country's contribution in terms of carbon dioxide equivalents amounted to 6.33 million tonnes. The share of carbon dioxide is therefore 13.8% of the total carbon dioxide equivalent.

Emissions of methane

Of the total 64.4 Kt methane (CH4) emissions from sources in the country, the agriculture sector was the largest contributor with 40.5 Kt (66.9%). Enteric fermentation from domestic livestock (substantial herds of cattle and goats) accounted for most of these emissions. The waste sector followed with 16.5 Kt (27.3%), which came from industrial waste out of the production of beer, pulp and paper.

Emissions derived from the all energy sector were 7.2 Kt (5.5%). This resulted from fugitive fuel emissions in coal mining operations and the combustion of firewood for cooking and heating. Insignificant emissions were derived from on-site burning within the land-use change and forestry sectors. The methane carbon dioxide equivalent accounted to 0.13 million tonnes, making up 2.1% of the country’s total.

Emissions of Nitrous Oxide

The country’s N2O emissions were a paltry 1.3 Kt. Most of this amount (93%) resulted from the liming of agricultural soils, agricultural waste burning and savannah burning within the agriculture sector.

There were minute emissions in the all energy sectors of manufacturing and households arising from firewood combustion. This gas had a carbon dioxide equivalent figure of 0.42 million tonnes and thus accounting for 6.6 % of the country's total.

Emissions of Precursors and Flourinated Compounds

Emissions of oxides of nitrogen (NOX), carbon monoxides (CO) and non-methane volatile compounds (NMVOCs) were estimated at 19.9, 523 and 80 kilotonnes respectively. The largest contribution of NOX came from agriculture (60%) and fuel combustion of firewood under the residential sector (38%). CO emissions emanated from similar sources whilst NMVOC emissions largely came from industrial processes.

The country's single largest contribution in terms of carbon dioxide equivalent was observed in the hydrofloucarbons HFCs category. This yielded some 4.9 million tonnes amounting to 77.5% of the country's total. Such a level is attributed to the fact that the country has a significant refrigerator production plant for export markets. The gases were therefore used in the refrigerator units as well as in air conditioners, fire extinguishers and to a lesser extent on solvents and aerosols.

Carbon dioxide removals

The inventory revealed GHG sinks in the country's land-use change and forestry sector. As mentioned, the managed forest plantations are significantly large, hence providing for substantial removals for a country the size of Swaziland. On the emissions side, this sector produced some 2,910 Kt CO2, 60% of which were from commercial harvests, 25% from off-site burning through firewood combustion, and lesser amounts from liming of soils and other activities.

In contrast to the emission state of this sector, the sink capacity amounted to 6 168 Kt carbon dioxide removal. The predominant carbon uptake offering 99.5% of the removals was by trees from commercial plantations including non-forest trees in towns. The remainder was from abandoned areas.

On aggregate therefore, taking into account the amounts of emissions and sinks in all sectors the country's final GHG budget is of a net CO2 sink. CO2 emissions totalled some 3 784 Kt whilst the sink capacity was 6 168 Kt. The net balance in favour of sinks was a substantial 2 384 Kt. Such an achievement in GHG removal terms by the country is considered significant in fulfiling the objectives of the Convention to tackle the very cause of climate change.

1.4 IMPACTS AND ADAPTATION

The high vulnerability of Africa to various manifestations of climate change has been confirmed in reports of the IPCC and other publications. In the context of Swaziland, the sectors that are climate sensitive and hence highly at risk are:

Water resources, especially in international shared basins;
Agriculture, in issues of food security at risk from declines in production in an uncertain climate;
Natural resources and biodiversity, on future types of ecosystems, tree growth, distribution and mortality of species; and
Health, on vector-borne diseases as they relate to anticipated changes in climate parameters, notably precipitation and temperature.

Climate Change

Swaziland does not have sufficiently long instrumental climate data to reliably construct past climates. As a result the wider temperature record for Africa south of the equator is used to present the climate of the twentieth century for the sub-region. Such an analysis shows a warming of almost 1°C having occurred between 1900 and the 1980s and an average warming of 0.05°C per decade over the almost 100 year period.

According to projections by the IIPCC, if current trends of GHG emissions remain unchanged, GHG concentrations in the atmosphere will double by the year 2075 with the result of global temperatures increasing by about 2.5°C. Any future climate change will most certainly have some form of impacts, not only on conditions of the physical environment, but also on the overall socio-economic aspects of life.

As a first step to assess the extent of changes in the future climate of the country, a current climate baseline was established from available meteorological records. This was based on a thirty-year period (1961-1990) of data obtained from meteorological instruments. The current climate classification for the country is therefore a humid and subtropical one.

In determining future climate scenarios, a simple climate model called MAGICC combined with a regional climate database called SCENGEN was used. A choice of some three General Circulation Models (GCMs) were employed in running the simulations based on how well they represent the current climate, their age and their resolution. These were the UKTR, GFDL and CCC-EQ.

The projections from all the models point to temperature increases in future years though with varying magnitudes. Precipitation projections on the other hand give mixed results. In general, the models project total annual rainfall amounts by 2075 falling below those received under current climate by single digit percentages. The monthly situation projects amounts that are higher than those under current climate in the late spring to mid summer period (October to January) For the rest of the months of the year projections give future rainfall amounts that are lower than under current climate.

As most of the country’s annual rainfall is received over the summer period, an increase in precipitation over this period is likely to result in flooding conditions. The projections of winter rainfall reduction also pose the problem of higher possibilities of drought occurrences. Other meteorological conditions that are related to either temperature or rainfall are likely to be equally affected. These are the initial risks that the country is likely to face in a climate change situation.

Impacts on forests and woodland resources

Forests are an important resource in Swaziland because of their value in a variety of applications. Some of the value derived from the different tree species (exotic and indigenous) are as follows: commercially as a source of revenue, culturally for ceremonial use, health-wise in medicinal requirements, and nutritionally in providing food supplements to rural communities. It is on the basis of these that an assessment of climate change impacts on this sector was considered important to undertake.

The forest species selected for the assessment were two exotic ones (pinus and eucalyptus) and four indigenous ones (combretum, syzygium cordatum, sclerocarya birrea and pterocarpus angolensis).

Ecosystems

It was established that Swaziland is currently characterised by two ecosystem types. One is the subtropical moist forest which occurs on the high lying western parts, and the other is the subtropical dry forest covering the rest of the eastern half of country.

To assess the impacts of climate change on these ecosystems, future climate scenarios for the country were used as generated from the selected three global climate models. These scenarios in general point to a future climate featuring country wide increases in temperatures and some varying patterns in seasonal rainfall.

The current and projected ecosystem types were assessed by applying the Holdridge Life Zone Classification Model on the climate scenarios obtained thus giving the potential land cover for each location. The results show a westward shift and shrinking in size of both the areas covered by the subtropical moist and subtropical dry forests in the future. Furthermore the country is projected to see the introduction of a tropical very dry forest type of ecosystem in the eastern flanks taking as much as up to one fifth of the total land area.

Tree growth

The vulnerability of tree species to climate change was assessed with applying the Forest GAP model on the climate scenarios. Simulations of future distributions, tree growth and mortality of species were made based on environmental conditions. The general conclusion is that for both exotic tree species biomass production is likely to increases in the future compared to those being realised under current climate. In terms of stem sizes, projections are that these will be slightly smaller under climate change and as expected, more individuals will fall under the smallest diameter ranges (0-10cm).

As for the four indigenous species, the biomass performance shows mixed results but with more tendency towards a general reduction. This fact may be attributed to the expected increase in future temperatures in the areas where these species strive coupled with the already low rainfall amounts which would cause high evapotranspiration and hence low overall water availability for the plants. The sclerocarya species is also likely to dominate over the three others whilst syzigium is likely to be compromised by climate change.

Impacts on Water Resources

The future performance of climate will most certainly have a primary effect on water resources and as such make this sector key in impact assessment studies. The study was made to focus on one river, the Great Usutu mainly because of the great socio-economic significance of this basin, being one within which about three quarters of the country’s population lives.

The response of the Usutu river to climate change was evaluated using outputs of the three GCMs (GFDL, UKTR, and CCC-EQ) The results obtained were then used as inputs to the WatBall model which is an integrated rainfall-runoff model for forecasting stream flow.

The model runs gave projections up to the year 2075 for this river. In summary, the model projects stream flows that are higher than those under current climate in the late spring to mid summer period (October to January). For the rest of the months of the year projections give future flows that are substantially lower than those of corresponding months under the current climate.

In terms of total annual runoff, the GCMs give an overall average reduction in runoff ranging from 2 to 6% in a normal year and even higher for dry years. Such changes will translate to increased possibilities of flooding in the rainy season due to higher flows and drought-related conditions in winter due to low flows. As the projections depict an overall reduction in annual runoff, the drought conditions are expected to be more pronounced and frequent features of future climate than shall be the floods. Effects of this will likely find its way into groundwater recharges and salinity as well as dam capacities.

Impacts on Agriculture

Agricultural production, which is one of the country’s leading contributor to GDP is very sensitive to weather variations. To assess the performance of three major crops under the present climate as well as under projected future conditions (2025), the Decision Support System for Agrotechnical Transfer (DSSAT3) was employed.

The general observation was that for the maize crop, most of the country could be unsuitable for its growth since yields are estimated to decrease considerably. In the other regions yields could be improved by changing the planting season from the traditional second week of October to the second week of August. For sorghum and beans, yields are also projected to decrease in general with the exception of the western parts where these are currently not grown extensively.

1.5 GENERAL DESCRIPTION OF STEPS

Mitigation Options

An attempt was made to elaborate on steps that have either been taken or envisaged by the country to implement the Convention. The mitigation options considered were mainly centred in the Energy and Forestry sectors as these are where most opportunities for intervention are.

In energy, mitigation would be meaningful on both the supply and end-use.

The supply side:

Electricity generation through cogeneration by the use of high-pressure steam turbines burning bagasse and wood-pulp residue as input fuel.

End-use side:

Energy efficient boilers, and electric motors
Matching electric supply to demand
Improved maintenance and inspection of motor vehicles
Gasoline/ethanol blending
Efficient lighting systems
Use of solar geysers
Improved wood stoves
Switching from the use of wood and kerosene to LPG and electric stoves

In Forestry, the mitigation intervention could include the following:

Increasing area under forest cover and reducing degraded areas
Establishment of additional woodlots
Introducing agro-forestry activities

Policies and other measures

The country has in the past spelled out its development objectives through various frameworks and set strategies to achieve these. As the significance of environmental issues began to emerge, there has been a move to model such policies and actions to embrace this domain more comprehensively. Notably, the government's environment legislation has been strengthened to require both the public and private sectors to ensure that all their future policies and strategies take environmental considerations into account. This is considered a strength to supporting the requirements of the Convention as inherent climate change considerations can be covered to some degree. Supporting policy interventions and strategies are either already in place or in the process of being promulgated in other areas including Energy, Forestry, Water resources, Transport, Agriculture and Land.

Financial and Technological needs and constraints

Through undertaking the process of compiling the National Communication, the country has identified several areas with constraints that need to be attended to. Firstly institutional infrastructures for facilitating a continuous process of undertaking such assessments and related activities was identified as weak. There therefore is need for the structures to be strengthened for more efficient coordination and execution of processes and activities for purposes of future National Communications.

There also is the element of inadequate local technological capacity to expedite in an effective manner the tasks of undertaking the assessments. Capacity building is therefore required in the human resource domain to ensure availability of a pool of experts that the process can draw from. Similarly technology transfer is increasingly more desirable if more efficient and environmentally friendly systems and technologies are to be introduced. Together with these, is the lack of comprehensive local data and country-specific information to support the studies. The physical recording network requires strengthening to ensure systematic observations, as do the related information collection and management systems.

As a developing country with many priority issues to consider, Swaziland’s financial resources are not adequate for use in making a meaningful intervention in the Convention’s implementation. The many good measures identified in this study are not possible to undertake without some form of financial support. The country can certainly join the international effort to protect the global climate system with the support and assistance from other partners.

This page was last updated on 18 February 2004